Stock Market Update Wednesday 618 2025

Stock Market Update Wednesday 618 2025 FOMC Recap: Dovish Pause, But Hawkish Revisions Temper Market Optimism As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at today’s meeting, but updated projections told a more nuanced story. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflected downward revisions to GDP growth and a modest uptick in inflation expectations, signaling the Fed’s cautious stance amid persistent price pressures. These revisions—highlighted by commentary from Peter Boockvar—were sufficient to stifle an intraday equity rally, leaving major indices essentially flat by the close.

Treasury yields, which had drifted lower heading into the announcement, reversed slightly higher post-statement, before settling unchanged on the day. The U.S. 10-year yield closed at 4.39%, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude ahead of key data and a long weekend.

Market snapshot:

• S&P 500 (SPX): Unchanged

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): Unchanged

• Russell 2000 (IWM): +0.5%

• 10-Year UST Yield: Unchanged at 4.39%

• WTI Crude: Unchanged at $75/bbl

• Gold: Slightly lower

• VIX: Lower to ~20, retreating post-Fed and ahead of tomorrow’s market holiday

Despite the muted reaction, the VIX drifted lower, suggesting that implied volatility premiums are easing, especially with reduced event risk in the near term. The broader picture remains one of range-bound markets, with equities holding firm in the face of mixed macro signals, geopolitical uncertainty, and a data-dependent Fed.

Powell Highlights Uncertainty, Sidesteps Political Rhetoric

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell struck a measured tone, emphasizing two key themes:

1. The elevated uncertainty in the economic outlook, driven in large part by trade and tariff dynamics, and

2. The Committee’s conviction that current policy settings provide the flexibility needed to navigate these uncertainties.

Powell made a conscious effort to reaffirm the Fed’s independence, steering clear of any direct reference to President Trump’s recent remarks or policy preferences. While the Chair remained diplomatic, the underlying message—that trade policy is beyond the Fed’s control but central to the outlook—likely fell short of White House expectations, which have leaned heavily on the Fed for more accommodative messaging.

The takeaway: Powell projected policy steadiness and institutional autonomy, while subtly acknowledging that exogenous political risks are clouding the forecast—a stance that may not align with the administration’s push for faster easing.