Stock Market Update Tuesday April 15, 2025

Stock Market Update Tuesday April 15, 2025 Equities drifted modestly lower, with the S&P 500 declining 0.2% in a subdued trading session, marking a reprieve from recent market turbulence. Investors appeared less sentimental for the heightened volatility of prior weeks, as the first two days of this week restored relative stability. Daily performance: S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.2%, and Russell 2000 (IWM) +0.1%.

Away From Stocks: Meanwhile, fixed-income markets saw the 10-year Treasury yield ease to 4.35% from 4.38% on Monday, while the two-year note remained steady at 3.84%. In commodities, WTI crude oil held stable at $61.50 per barrel, gold rallied to $3,228 per ounce, and bitcoin slipped below $84,000. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) receded to 30, signaling tempered market unease.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," closed below 31 today, a significant threshold in our analysis. Despite this decline, the VIX remains in "extreme fear" territory, signaling elevated market uncertainty. We will closely monitor its trajectory over the coming week, particularly after its spike to 60 on April 7, 2025. Historically, during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 market crash—the only two periods when the VIX exceeded 60—equity markets had typically bottomed out by the time the VIX retreated below 31. Currently, the VIX implies a daily volatility of approximately 1.95%. In a Bloomberg interview, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that market uncertainty, as measured by the VIX, has likely peaked. This perspective carries weight, given the VIX's rapid decline from 60 to 31 over the past week.

Tomorrow's Macro News:

• 8:30 AM ET: March Retail Sales (Expected: 1.4%)

• 10:00 AM ET: April NAHB Housing Market Index (Expected: 38)

• 1:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago