Stock Market Update Thursday April 24, 2025

Stock Market Update Thursday April 24, 2025 Equity markets exhibited renewed risk-on sentiment, marking a third consecutive session of robust gains. The S&P 500 surged to its highest level since the 9.8% relief rally on April 9, recovering sharply from Monday's pullback amid heightened volatility. After hours: Alphabet beat estimates, the stock is higher by about +4%, while Intel , issued weak guidance and plans to cut spending, that stock down about -7%.

Major Index Performance:

• S&P 500 (SPX): +2.0%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +2.3%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): +2.0%

Away From Stocks: Treasury markets were well-bid across the curve, with 2-year and 30-year yields retreating by 4 and 6 basis points, respectively, to settle at 3.77% and 4.77%, indicative of strong demand for duration. In commodities, WTI crude oil advanced towards $63 per barrel, while gold rebounded sharply, climbing to $3,345 per ounce, reflecting renewed safe-haven flows. Bitcoin held firm, consolidating recent gains around $93,400, while market volatility eased further—the VIX Index declined to 26.5, shedding another 2 points on the session, underscoring improving sentiment and lower implied volatility.

Premium Update Key Macroeconomic Trends:

Recession Risk: The probability of a U.S. recession has declined from 68% to 52%, signaling greater-than-expected economic resilience and improving investor sentiment.

Market Volatility:

• The VIX is retreating sharply from recent peaks, indicating reduced market stress.

• High-yield credit spreads have clawed back 50% of recent widening, reflecting improved risk appetite.

Geopolitical Risk:

• Signs of a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions.

• Trump has floated the idea of tariff reductions, which could ease pressure on global supply chains.

• Political risk around Fed Chair Powell’s job security appears to be fading, stabilizing expectations for policy continuity.

Economic Data:

• Global PMIs remain above the 50 threshold, pointing to ongoing expansion.

• The Fed’s Beige Book reflects decelerating growth but no imminent downturn.

• All eyes are on the upcoming University of Michigan inflation expectations report, a key gauge for Fed policy direction.

Stocks increased significantly on Wednesday and today. This highlights how stock prices can quickly rise if there's unexpected good news about government policy, similar to what happened after the "90-day pause" announcement on April 9th. Although unclear tariff policies still make it difficult to predict the future and weaken investor confidence, the stock market is currently doing better than it was last week. Tesla's positive stock performance after releasing its earnings report on Tuesday suggests that the period of greatest uncertainty for the markets might be over.

Earlier in the week, concerns arose about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell. While Trump initially seemed intent on this, the White House appears to have walked back those claims. The odds of Powell being removed in 2025 have decreased. The risk of undermining investor confidence due to actions like "Tariff Liberation Day" remains a concern. It's worth noting that stock performance tends to be better when Scott Bess is prominent in the news cycle compared to Lutnick or Navarro.