Stock Market Update Monday June 16, 2025

Stock Market Update Monday June 16, 2025 Equities kicked off the week with a robust rally, propelled by optimism from a report suggesting a potential de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. However, continued strikes and lack of definitive de-escalation signals from both parties tempered initial enthusiasm, leading to a partial retracement of gains as the trading session progressed. Crude oil prices softened marginally but held most of their recent upward momentum, reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the late fade, the market posted a strong start to the week. The finance card above shows the S&P 500 (SPY) closed at $602.68, up 0.95% from the previous day's close of $597.00. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QLD) surged to $110.57, a 2.75% gain from $107.61, while the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advanced to $210.77, up 0.90% from $208.89, aligning with the reported gains of 0.9%, 1.4%, and 1.2% for SPX, QQQ, and IWM, respectively.

Away From Stocks: Treasurys faced sustained selling pressure in a bear-steepening yield curve environment, as 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed by one and six basis points, respectively, reaching 3.97% and 4.96%. WTI crude oil retreated below $72 per barrel, signaling a pause in commodity momentum, while gold depreciated to $3,385 per ounce amid profit-taking. Bitcoin rallied to $108,600, underscoring digital asset volatility, and the VIX, a gauge of market uncertainty, moderated slightly above 19, indicating tempered risk aversion.

Macro News:

• June 17

  • 8:30 AM

    • May Import Price m/m

      • Estimate: -0.2

      • Last: 0.1

    • May Retail Sales m/m

      • Estimate: -0.6

      • Last: 0.1

  • 10:00 AM

    • Jun Homebuilder Sentiment

      • Estimate: 36

      • Last: 34

• June 18

  • 2:00 PM

    • Jun 18 FOMC Decision

      • Estimate: 4.5

      • Last: 4.5

  • 4:00 PM

    • Apr Net TIC Flows

      • Estimate: n/a

      • Last: 254.28

Last Thursday, Israel attacked Iran, aiming to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities. The war in the Middle East will be a key discussion point when world leaders meet at the G-7 meeting in Canada on Monday and Tuesday.