Stock Market Update Monday August 19, 2024

Stock Market Update Monday August 19, 2024 Equities demonstrated a robust performance, with the S&P 500 advancing by 1%, closing within a percentage point of its mid-July peak, and extending its winning streak to eight consecutive sessions. All 11 sectors posted gains, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading, each up approximately 1%.

Away From Stocks: Treasury markets, where long-term yields saw a decline. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by three basis points to 3.86%, while the 30-year yield dropped by four basis points to 4.11%. In contrast, the short-term two-year yield remained stable at 4.06%. Commodities delivered mixed results. WTI crude oil prices retreated, dipping below $74 per barrel. Gold prices consolidated recent gains, remaining just above $2,500 per ounce. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound, trading around $59,200. The VIX volatility index continued its downward trend from early August highs, closing below 15, signaling reduced market anxiety.

We are entering a historically negative seasonal period for Bitcoin, and investors should remain mindful of this trend. However, the sharp decline in the VIX over the past week signals increased investor confidence and a reduction in defensive positioning, which could provide additional support for crypto prices. While seasonal factors are important, they should not overshadow macroeconomic and crypto-specific drivers. The chart pattern for Bitcoin appears bullish in the short term, with a developing bull flag formation. Nevertheless, we are waiting to accumulate crypto until our algorithm generates a buy alert.