Stock Market Update Friday June 20, 2025

Stock Market Update Friday June 20, 2025 Equities opened the session on a strong footing following dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller during a CNBC interview, where he signaled that a July rate cut remains on the table. However, the early optimism proved short-lived, as gains faded into the close, leaving major indices modestly lower by session’s end. The S&P 500 wrapped up a largely directionless week, effectively unchanged, as price action remained confined to a narrow range despite a steady stream of macroeconomic and policy headlines. Market breadth remained mixed, with leadership rotating out of mega-cap tech into more defensive names.

Daily Performance:

• S&P 500 (SPX): -0.2%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -0.4%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.2%

Fixed Income & Commodities:

In the bond market, Treasuries posted a mixed performance. The 2-year yield declined four basis points to 3.89%, reflecting some repricing of near-term Fed policy expectations, while the 30-year yield nudged up to 4.89% from 4.88%, indicating a flatter curve amid uncertain growth prospects.

Commodities and Alternatives:

• WTI crude oil settled at $74 per barrel, holding steady amid geopolitical tensions and mixed inventory data.

• Gold hovered around $3,369 per ounce, showing little directional bias as traders digested Fed commentary.

• Bitcoin slipped below $104,000, extending its recent consolidation phase.

• The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) eased below 21, suggesting subdued investor anxiety despite limited upside traction.

🏛️ FOMC Recap: Fed Caught Between Inflation Pressures and Labor Market Fragility

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Fed holds rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%

• Inflation risks rise with tariffs and oil prices

• Labor market shows early signs of softening

• Fed still signals two rate cuts in 2024

• Market expects cuts in 2025 and 2026, despite persistent inflation