Stock Market Update Friday July 11, 2025

Stock Market Update Friday July 11, 2025 Markets Open Lower on Canadian Tariff Concerns; Momentum Fizzles Late on Fed, FHFA Headlines U.S. equities opened under pressure Friday following renewed tariff threats—this time targeting Canada. The S&P 500 gapped lower at the open but quickly found dip-buying support within the first 30 minutes, resuming the grind higher that has typified the past two weeks of trade. However, the late-session tone turned defensive after two market-moving headlines hit in rapid succession: slightly hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Austan Goolsbee and an unusual tweet from FHFA Chair Mark Pulte, alleging that Fed Chair Powell was considering stepping down—a claim he attributed to himself. While the market ultimately digested both events without panic, the twin headlines were sufficient to derail intraday upside momentum, preventing the SPX from turning positive. Small-cap equities bore the brunt of the weakness, underperforming significantly.

Closing Performance (Friday):

• S&P 500: -0.30%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): -0.20%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): -1.30%

Away From Stocks: Yields Climb, Crypto Soars Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year and 30-year maturities climbing 4 and 10 basis points, respectively, closing at 3.90% and 4.96%. The move reflects a modest repricing of rate expectations following Goolsbee’s comments. In commodities, WTI crude advanced toward $69 per barrel, and gold surged to $3,357 per ounce as investors rotated into perceived inflation hedges. Meanwhile, Bitcoin skyrocketed to $118,000, continuing its parabolic rally as speculative appetite remained elevated. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged above 16, reflecting mild hedging demand into next week’s macro catalysts.

Breadth Weakens as Rally Grows Narrow

Despite headline gains in major indices, market internals paint a more cautious picture. The current equity rally has been driven disproportionately by a narrow cohort of mega-cap names, while the median stock remains well below its 52-week high. This divergence in breadth has prompted analysts to warn of potential fragility in the rally, particularly if leadership stocks falter.

Airline Stocks Lift on Delta Beat, But Broader Market Woes Dominate

Delta Air Lines delivered a strong quarterly report, with earnings and forward guidance beating consensus estimates. Shares soared 12%, catalyzing a sector-wide rally in airlines and helping the Dow Transportation Index notch intraday highs. However, the strength in travel stocks failed to offset macro headwinds elsewhere, and the broader market remained under pressure by session end.

Looking Ahead: Earnings Season and Inflation in Focus

Investor attention now shifts to the start of Q2 earnings season and the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) next week. Market participants are preparing for elevated volatility, with inflation data expected to shape the Fed’s policy trajectory and earnings releases offering a reality check on corporate fundamentals. The intersection of macroeconomic indicators and trade policy developments will likely define market direction in the near term.

Bottom Line:

Broad-Based Technical Strength Suggests Bullish Outlook For July With all five major U.S. equity indices currently registering weekly buy signals, the market setup remains structurally bullish. We anticipate any pullbacks to be shallow and met with swift dip-buying activity, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend. The breadth of participation is particularly notable—broad sector rotation and upside momentum are supporting the latest push to all-time highs for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) positioned to potentially confirm new highs in the coming week. This type of broad-based expansion across market cap and sector exposures strengthens the bull case and suggests durable internal support for the rally. Sentiment is gradually shifting, with investors beginning to re-engage and increase risk exposure. While this uptick in optimism reflects growing confidence in the trend, current positioning and sentiment readings are not yet at levels typically associated with euphoria or overbought extremes. As such, we do not yet see the conditions necessary for a market top, but sentiment will remain a key variable to monitor in the sessions ahead.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) signaled a buy alert for the weekly chart on Thursday July 3, 2025 chart; now we have all five major indexes with confirmed buy signals on both a daily and weekly basis. Our next W.D. Gann Cycle Pivot Date will be released later this month. You can find out more in our premium Discord channel. On June 9, 2025, our proprietary algorithm has issued weekly buy signals across four of the five major U.S. equity benchmarks—the S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA). Tuesday, April 29, 2025, we have IWM & RSP ETFs; the two are the most important indexes to give buy signals. Now, we have all five major indexes with buy signals generated from our proprietary algorithm. Monday, April 28, 2025, we had a buy signal generated from our proprietary algorithm for the Dow Jones ETF DIA on the daily chart. The market structure continues to improve, breadth thrusts confirm internal strength, and technical conditions suggest that while short-term upside could be capped, the path of least resistance remains higher. April 25, 2025, Technical Outlook: SPY, QQQ, and DIA have daily buy signals. Sector ETFs (XLK, AIQ, SMH, XLY) have triggered buy signals. April 24, 2025, as do Bitcoin, and VIX has a daily sell signal (bullish for equities).

Next week will be eventful for markets. On Tuesday, the core Consumer Price Index