Stock Market Daily Update Monday March 31, 2025

Stock Market Daily Update Monday March 31, 2025 Equities faced significant headwinds as March—and the first quarter—drew to a close, with the S&P 500 (SPX) sinking to a fresh multi-week low. However, a mid-session reversal propelled the index into positive territory by the closing bell. Despite the late-session recovery, March marked the worst monthly performance for equities since 2022.

On the session:

• S&P 500 (SPX/SPY): +0.6%

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Flat

• Russell 2000 (IWM): -0.6%

Away From Stocks: Fixed-income markets saw demand on the long end of the curve, with 30-year Treasury yields declining five basis points to 4.59%. Meanwhile, commodities surged—WTI crude climbed above $71 per barrel, and gold hit a record high of $3,124 per ounce. Bitcoin remained range-bound below $83,000, while volatility ticked higher, with the VIX closing north of 22.

Key Economic Events This Week

Market participants will closely monitor macroeconomic data releases, which could provide further clarity on growth prospects:

• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing data (U.S. and global) & JOLTS job openings (February)

• Wednesday: Tariff announcement – Potential for market volatility

• Friday: March jobs report & Fed Chair Powell’s speech

Equities Under Pressure Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty

U.S. equities are facing significant selling pressure Sunday night with futures selling as investors grapple with policy uncertainty stemming from the White House. Market participants are anxiously awaiting clarity on potential tariffs, with Wednesday's announcement being a critical inflection point. Last week, President Trump's tariff announcement targeting automakers rattled financial markets. Over the weekend, new reports emerged indicating that the administration is considering $700 billion in tariffs, set to take effect on April 2nd. This development stems from remarks by White House trade advisor Peter Navarro and President Trump himself.

Market Sentiment and Key Mitigating Factors

Despite prevailing bearish sentiment, several factors could cushion downside risks: